Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 2.743487 3.773644 5.251501 7.607195 1.143099e+01 17.714545 29.591025
2025-03-16 1.767306 2.798163 4.586748 8.190067 1.608383e+01 35.143357 96.812859
2025-03-23 1.260490 2.237819 4.230625 9.214874 2.408157e+01 80.955177 499.781884
2025-03-30 0.926472 1.807992 3.872573 10.182880 3.609720e+01 211.710312 6217.805058
2025-04-06 0.655740 1.368496 3.216139 9.822276 4.564548e+01 492.954155 524759.339735
2025-04-13 0.469566 1.030832 2.604477 8.997028 5.342938e+01 1149.284332 NaN
2025-04-20 0.373810 0.869762 2.394713 9.651291 8.058237e+01 6396.423994 NaN
2025-04-27 0.315215 0.779083 2.352938 11.313730 1.476660e+02 282325.330985 NaN
2025-05-04 0.271473 0.710133 2.346947 13.560238 3.060799e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.228948 0.625180 2.216946 14.918823 5.781397e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.186714 0.522989 1.935337 14.342256 8.248576e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.151427 0.431023 1.639173 12.944234 9.930729e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.131414 0.387349 1.564688 14.290814 2.364188e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.114118 0.346598 1.476124 15.411519 6.232381e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.101452 0.318294 1.437263 17.527642 2.930152e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.090277 0.291370 1.386099 19.551023 2.671722e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.077578 0.253526 1.234477 18.624446 1.214650e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.066234 0.217762 1.072418 16.727203 3.219855e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059774 0.200675 1.028255 18.073162 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.055594 0.191981 1.038737 21.679033 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.052149 0.185318 1.060895 26.735431 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047988 0.173840 1.034279 29.845527 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042911 0.156398 0.942040 28.422133 NaN NaN NaN